[Marxism] "Peak Oil": the US-China Economic Downturns Factored In?

Jon Flanders jonflanders at jflan.net
Sun Oct 2 15:58:55 MDT 2005


On Sun, 2005-10-02 at 17:40 -0400, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
> Have those who speak of "peak oil" factored in the likely economic  
> downturns in the United States and China -- the two largest oil  
> consumers -- in the very near future -- certainly before 2020 -- in  
> their calculations of oil consumption trends?

I think some people, a writer like Jim Kunstler, for  example, have not
given enough weight to the possibility of demand destruction caused by a
recession or depression.

On the other hand, transportation is so dependent on oil in the US, that
there has to be a pretty severe downturn to wipe out significant demand.

Without a doubt, recessions and depressions will drag out the crest of
the peak. But as Mark Jones points out, this also has the effect of
destroying the very capability to obtain oil after the crash ends.

The Mark Jones segment I just posted bears careful study. We will be
learning from him for a long time, I think.

Jon Flanders






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