[Marxism] Re: Will the USA invade Iraq

Nick Halliday halliday.nick at gmail.com
Sat Oct 8 07:08:50 MDT 2005

In reply to Ian, GM writes:

>>fortune telling is not my thing though with the usual human
hubirs I do try it regularly.  On balance I think that yes
they want to attack Iran but they cannot possibly invade or
at least not occupy.  That is surely the lesson of Iraq war.
I am with Mac on this.

However I do think that Seymour Hersch's prediction of all
out bombing of Iran will prove accurate.

What will be the effect on their Shiite allies in Iraq?  With
Iran's connivance America have set up a Shiite republic in
waiting there.  How will the allies of Iran who form the Iraq
government take an all our bombing of Iran?  I doubt if even
the Ayatollah al-Sistani could sell that to the faithful.>>

Most likely the US military would carry out a 'pre-emptive' strike
against 'nuclear' facilities in Iran in order to PRE-EMPT Israel from
doing so.
The US military, no way in hell, could invade or occupy Iran except
perhaps areas near the Iraq border.

Once again I have to disagree with GM about Iran, Sistani, and the
Occupation. There may well have been significant cooperation from the
previous 'moderate' government in Iran with the Occupation (and it was
this 'moderate' government that enjoyed kissing Sistani's ring).
Unless the current leader of Iran is some sort of deep cover guy, it
would appear the reason he got elected is that his ideology and way of
doing things is closer to Sadr than Sistani.

Meanwhile, back to the current reality. The USuk coalition had at
least three major military operations going in the past two weeks--one
near the Syrian border, one in Baghdad, and one in the South. One is
clearly against the Sunni Resistance, talk of Zarqawai be damned. More
than anything it's an attempt to intimidate, harass, kill and turn
into refugees those who would vote down the cursed constitution. The
one in Baghdad seemed to be more a response to the Resistance there
(mixed as it is) which in turn was reacting to US and UK military
operations elsewhere; however, since there is so little coverage in
the media, we might speculate about the possibility that it is a
similar such attempt to harass the anti-constitution masses (mixed) of
Sadr City. The one in the South is an attempt by the British to turn
up the heat on the Sadrist forces.

What's most interesting about the 'major' military operations is that
the US gyrines seem to have lost as many of their own as they actually
killed of the Resistance (they claimed they killed 50 fighters, but
these figures always look inflated), while quite a few marines were
lost in the operations, even right at the end when a convoy must have
been hit with explosive devices.

Another significant event that I saw on CNN-I was footage of the
marines firing a 120 mm tank round into a house and killing and
wounding only non-combatants, including little children. The vacuous
reporter blathered on about how vital it was to have reporting going
so we could see the reality of the war, but it seems pretty obvious
the only reason the footage got out past the censors was to send a
message to the Resistance: continue fighting and this is what we do to
your families. The US military' s propaganda machine cares not one
whit that what was shown on the video was a clear war crime.


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