[Marxism] Exit polls and a stolen election in Mexico

Joaquin Bustelo jbustelo at bellsouth.net
Tue Jul 4 17:48:19 MDT 2006

I don't think but that there's any question that Lopez Obrador won the
elections and there is now an active effort to steal them.

The reason I know is because I saw the TV coverage Sunday night. And when
the precincts closed and it came time to announce the results of the exit
polls, something bizarre happened.

Unlike in the U.S. where there is only one exit poll, and all the networks
agree to lie about it and present it as their very own exit poll, the two
major TV networks and several other large news organizations all
commissioned exit polls by different polling organizations. As did the major

So at the appointed time, the bigfoot anchors went on the air saying they
had the exit poll results in hand and the difference between the two leading
contenders was too close to call. They reiterated, the numbers obtained by
the two leading candidates were within the plus/minus 1.6% statistical error
of these polls, the election was extremely tight, etc.

And I hit the web pages of the others that sponsored exit polls, only to
find the same response. "Too close to call."

for President.

Now, each one of these news and partisan organizations had spent tens of
thousands of dollars or more doing the exit polls. It at least the case of
the news organizations, their reasons for doing this were competitive. Yet
here they are, and they ALL reach the SAME IDENTICAL "civic minded"
position: they're going to flush the exit poll money down the toilet and
just say too close to call.

What this means is there was a prior arrangement between the heads of these
news organizations --tacit or explicit-- to withhold the information from
the people. Because it may be that one exit poll showing a given candidate
ahead, but not with numbers that are statistically significant, and even
though usually it is right, according to statistical science, you really
can't say more than "too close to call." 

However if a candidate comes out ahead in all four or five independent exit
polls, that is a very strong statement of likelihood that this candidate had
more people coming out to vote for him. Because statistical science says
*normally* the poll is right on the money, within a few tenths of a percent,
and it is only an outlying rare bird, one case out of 20, where the poll is
off by the "full" margin of error. 

Lopez Obrador said, and no one disputed it, that the majority of exit polls
showed him ahead. If that were the case, that would explain why the
agreement to suppress the numbers stuck. If the results had been pro-PAN
mostly, there would have been no reason or motive to stick with the
agreement to suppress, since the bourgeoisie was pro-PAN and freedom of the
press belongs to those who own the press.

But if the numbers favored AMLO, it's an entirely different matter, even if
you *don't* assume, as I do, that of course the media barons are at the
heart of the election-stealing conspiracy. (I assume that for reasons too
numerous to mention but mostly because I've been a hack for 35 years, two
decades of that in major corporate news organizations, and intimately
involved in organizing election coverage. And I'm an intellectually arrogant
SOB and any other explanation for what I've seen, frankly, insults my
intelligence. And I don't care how much you say it's a chicken with severe
arthritis and laryngitis: it's a goddamn duck, and any idiot willing to open
their eyes can see it).

Putting together the non-information from the exit polls with the data
Yoshie offers via translation on MR zine we have the following picture.
Before the election AMLO was leading. On election day exit polls suggested
AMLO would win. In the counting, Calderon is ahead, but about 10% or more of
the votes are MIA (that's Missing In Action, not Marxist Internet Archive).

Given how ... phlegmatic AMLO has been about the whole thing, most people in
Mexico now assume Calderon won. But if he did win these elections, he did so
the old-fashioned way: he stole them.


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