[Marxism] AMLO ahead in official count threatens mass action

Jorge Martin jorge at marxist.com
Wed Jul 5 17:44:00 MDT 2006


Dear comrades,

Sometimes I feel we let ourselves be fooled by the capitalist media and jump
to conclusions too early, without factoring in the reaction of the masses.
Just a few disjointed thoughts and facts:

The full result of the preliminary count (PREP) gave Calderon (the PAN
candidate) a narrow advantadge over AMLO (PRD coalition with PT and
Convergencia), of 400,000 votes or about 0.6%.

BUT, this did not include something between 2 and 3 million votes which were
declared to be unclear, and would be included in the actual count, and there
were about 900,000 votes declared null.

 A whole host of other irregularities were pointed out, for instance votes
for the PRD disappearing (PRD activists had taken pictures of the electoral
booths when votes had been announced and compared those with the ones
registered in the PREP, and hundreds of votes were missing from a number of
polling stations.

Pressure was mounting up. people started to rally outside the IFE (Instituto
Federal Electoral). AMLO who had not dared mention the word fraud became
bolder, and said he demanded a full recount, and that there would be
mobilisations like the ones that prevented his impeachment last year and
that he would put himself at the head of those.

Then the official count started. from the very beginning AMLO had a 2.5 %
lead over Calderón! and this is the situation now, when about 75% of polling
station records (actas) have been counted and AMLO has a 2.1% lead over
Calderon.

There already reports of big meetings in working class areas in the DF and
the setting up of committees to defend the AMLO victory.

As a result of all this, the stock exchange has plunged and so has the peso.

Calderon has even offered AMLO a seat in a cabinet of national unity, and
has said that votes cannot be reversed in the streets. He definitely looks
more shakey than a couple of days ago.

No doubt the ruling class wanted Calderón to win. No doubt AMLO did not want
to mobilise his supporters (he tried to calm them down during the
mobilisations against his impeachment (desafuero)). But this is a struggle
of living forces and neither of them is in absolute control of the
situation. No doubt it is very difficult to reverse electoral fraud, but the
workers and peasants in Mexico have done some pretty amazing things in the
last period and we live in an epoch in which the workers and peasants all
over Latin America have done some pretty amazing things (in most of the
cases without a leadership worthy of their courage and revolutionary elan).

The whole situation is still open, but it looks more favourable to AMLO than
it was three days ago, or even 12 hours ago. They will try all sorts of
other tricks, one that comes to my mind is to recognise an AMLO victory and
then have a congress and senate where he is in a minority.

Jorge



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