[Marxism] The buffer zone strategy
marvgandall at videotron.ca
Tue Jul 18 18:29:01 MDT 2006
> On 7/18/06, Marvin Gandall <marvgandall at videotron.ca> wrote:
>> While others - including the
>> well-intentioned - might disagree, the development of an Iranian nuclear
>> deterrent would be a positive rather than a negative development for the
>> region. Far from further destabilizing it, it would redress the military
>> balance and be the most effective means of forcing the Israelis to come
>> terms with Palestinian demands.
> Yes, but if it takes ten or more years for Iran to develop nuclear
> weapons, as it is said that it will, won't it be too late?
> Presumably, Tel Aviv is in part doing what it is doing _now_ because
> it didn't want to wait till Tehran achieves the balance of terror that
> will limit Tel Aviv's unilateral action.
Yes and yes. Short of an Iranian nuclear deterrent, let's hope that a) the
Israelis are not able to eliminate even the low-intensity military pressure
on their borders from the Palestinian and Lebanese resistances; b) Israel
is sufficiently war weary to come to to some accomodation with both
movements, and c) Mearsheimer-Walt is a harbinger of a developing split in
the US ruling class over its Mideast policy. These all seem to me to be
preconditions to further advance in the region.
Maybe the current round of fighting will give these trends a nudge. I don't
think the Israelis realistically think they can "destroy" the resistance
movements, only "degrade" them. Someone yesterday said they "gagged" at the
NY Post article lamenting the "Lebanon syndrome" in Israel; my reaction was
to raise a glass to it's existence. The split in the Likud was ultimately
between those who favoured retreat and those who favoured thickening the
thinly-settled parts of the occupied territories. The former are now in
power as Kadima, and the latest incidents may show them - and their US and
European patrons - the bankruptcy of their unilateral disengagement policy.
The fact that this time there are also the Iraq and Iran impasses which
demand urgent attention may increase the pressure within these circles to
get these all these intertwined issues somehow resolved.
But at the end of the day how much would the Israelis be prepared to move on
where the borders are drawn and on the right of return, and how much would
the Palestinians be prepared to accept? How well the resistance forces
counter the latest onslaughts will clearly have a big effect on whether and
what kind of talks are held.
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