[Marxism] Re:Marxist analysis of US/Israel offensives

Marvin Gandall marvgandall at videotron.ca
Thu Jul 27 09:33:53 MDT 2006


Yoshie writes:

> More importantly, since the Six Day War, the Tel Aviv-Washington axis
> has scored a number of political victories, winning allies -- Egypt
> and Jordan above all -- among the Arab regimes and even the
> Palestinian power elite (the Mahmoud Abbas faction).  The axis could
> have continued along the line and scored more victories -- in Lebanon
> as well as elsewhere -- if they had been patient.
>
> I'd say the Tel Aviv-Washington axis could win politically in Iran,
> too.  There is no reason why it can't find an Iranian version of Anwar
> Sadat (imho, Rafsanjani or one of those reformists would be perfect
> for this role).

This is true. In any protracted struggle, there is always a split between
"compromisers" and "rejectionists" - on both sides. The issue is decided by
the relationship of forces. When there is an exhausting stalemate or rough
equilibrium between the parties, the forces favouring a compromise on either
side are strengthened. When one side is noticeably stronger and able to
impose its will on the other, it will naturally press home its advantage
until the other succumbs. Conflicts are not determined by the personal
strengths or weaknesses of individual leaders, although obviously the art of
politics is being able to correctly assess the relationship of forces, which
dictates how realizable are the demands and whether a pause, retreat, or
advance is in order. Factional disputes which erupt in popular movements and
organizations most frequently turn on conflicting assessments of the
possibilities, and unless you are directly participating in these struggles
and able to make your own first-hand observations, any judgement you make
from afar can only be tentative.
===================================
> But the Tel Aviv-Washington axis doesn't want to do that.

To date it hasn't. But the US and Israel are becoming increasingly
frustrated by their inability to impose military solutions. So maybe they
will scale back their ambitions and fall back on more "patient" means to
advance their goals.
=================================
> One wonders why.  The reason, I submit, is our weakness, i.e., the
> weakness of leftists in Israel and the United States.  That's what
> makes our power elite greedy and go out of control.

Do you really, really, believe this? The weakness of the left in these
countries is an historical problem, not a subjective one which can somehow
be willed away. Perhaps in despair, you place way too much responsibility on
the frail shoulders of the US and Israeli left. It reminds me of when the
Spartacists - the Frankenstein's monster of the Trotskyist movement - blamed
the 1973 overthrow of the Allende government on the "failure" of their only
slightly less marginal "Pabloist" opponents in the movement to warn the
Chilean masses about the dangers of the parliamentary road and the presumed
treachery of the SP-CP leadership. The US and Israeli lefts have about as
much influence on the policies of their governments towards the peoples of
the Middle East as the tiny Trotskyist movement had in relation to the
outcome in Chile.








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