What now? was Re: [Marxism] Marxist? Partial Explanation of Lebanon

g.maclennan at qut.edu.au g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Sat Jul 29 17:46:55 MDT 2006

I have read the Chossudovsky piece and it is persuasive in a quasi conspiratorial way. 

The oil pipeline is obviously a factor.  However the most important point to grasp is that events in Lebanon seem to have been almost totally bungled by the US and Israel.

As far as I can guess the immediate aim of the exercise was to provoke the Lebanese Govt into tackling Hizbullah.  That objective is totally impossible now.  By all accounts they have turned Nasrullah into a Pan-Arab hero.

The problem seems to lie with the US and Israeli relationship.  The USA wants Israel to do whatever it takes.  As debka.com put it, Bush & co are prepared to fight Hizbullah to the last Israeli soldier. 

At this stage it seems clear that to crush Hizbullah would for Israel entail a costly land invasion.  Israel however is committed to the Rumsfeld approach to warfare - massive & savage bombing plus Special Forces.  Neither of the two armies like casualties or long wars.  Yet because they will not use enough trooops on the ground they get stuck in the quagmires.

So it is possible Rice has turned up to put the heat on Israel for a full invasion.  I don't think so somehow.  Instead she will attempt to cobble something together like a UN or Nato force of peacekeepers to make it all sound as if the war was worth it.

In the mean time the Israeli Airforce has destroyed Lebanon.  That 'stunning' feat of arms has obvious relevance to Iran.  Indeed it may have been meant primarily to "encourage" the Iranians.

However having said all that it is possible that events will move outside the best laid schemes of the Pentagon and the State Dept.  The irony is that these days Rice sounds positibvely Hegelian with the New Middle East struggling to be born.  though with her it is the Hegel of the Philosophy of History where victors are always in the right because they are fulfilling the cunning of reason.

However Rice would not be the first to discover that the dialectic is remorseless.  A New Middle East is being born, but it will be one far from the fantasies of the Bush regime.



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