[Marxism] Re: A coup in the making? (Venezuela)

Carlos Petroni cepetroni at yahoo.com
Tue Nov 21 09:36:45 MST 2006


Louis:

Your point about socialdemocracy being unable to hold power in the south in
spite of the mild character of their reforms had been confirmed thousands of
times and more recently by every government that tried since Allende in Chile.

The possibility of a coup in Venezuela: Since the last attempt, years ago, a
continuous strategy was pursued by Chavez in the Armed Forces and the police
forces combining bribery, economic concessions and limited purges. The coup i
not a possibility as long as the military bureaucracy is enriching themselves
thanks to Chavez. The possibility of a coup is now as distant as the oil prices
are from collapsing. Both are inextricably united nowadays.

Of course, Chavez himself would love no other thing than everybody crying
wolf at this moment.

You seem to be inclined to believe Chavez is planning something in order to
succeed in maintaining the limited reforms of his government.  An interesting
point would be to really specify which reforms are you talking about: economic
reforms of the system, state reforms or reforms as concessions to the masses?
and a simple enumeration of them will give you a clear picture of the direction of
the regime.  The second point on this is to really tackle with the issue of issues
as related to Venezuela and Chavez: the two political "parties" on which Chavez
bases himself and the state machinery are infected with bureaucrats, former and
present functionaries of the state, labor bureaucrats and so on... including many
coming from the old parties, now in the opposition, like CAP's socialdemocracy,
MAS and others...

Add to that coctel the functionaries coming out of the PCV tradition and you
should obtain a formulae that is very "COMPLICATED" to say the least to build 
barrier between the present and Thermidor.  A good analogy -- as dangerous as
every analogy always is -- would be the "good" nationalist Peruvian colonels...
remember?

Good luck with your article.




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