[Marxism] Strategic Air Command basically poised to attack Iran...and why.
dave.walters at comcast.net
dave.walters at comcast.net
Fri Feb 16 23:11:46 MST 2007
The US could use nukes. It could 'almost' be a win-win situation for the US if they do: little if any radioactive release, wiping out large sections of their nuclear capability. If done in daytime during the week, they could destroy some/much/most of the intellectual nuclear capital Iran has accumulated over the years, demonstrate that the US could actually accomplish "something" with little or no collateral damage for itself.
They could also accomplish almost as much with "simply" using a large number of penetrating "JDAM", or guided heavy penetrating bombs without the accusation of using atomic weapons, again. Given the diffused engineering base of the Iranian nuclear industry, they would need 'spread' not 'impact'. JDAMs give them the area coverage, nukes don't. And, of course, the "lose" situation: huge political repercussions, possible radiological leaks, world-wide condemnation, etc, etc. Not to mention Iranian retaliation, including international oil boycotts and resulting price increases.
I believe the US gov't doesn't care about any of this. Oil price spikes as a result of such an attack, 100, 200 USD/barrel would only help the oil industry capitalists that are closest to the US administration.
I don't know about Iranian air defense. It's probably small, although it could be very sophisticated. They have possession of these high-speed anti-ship torpedoes (160 mph) that were developed with their own technology. They might have some whiz-bang surface-to-air missiles that they developed, but I tend to doubt it. They have their aging Vietnam era F-4s and a host of relatively more sophisticated MIGs that the Iraqi Air Force donated to them during the first Gulf War when the pilots decided to fly to Iran instead of engaging the air wing of the US Navy.
None of this is really good for the people of the world as we know. The purpose of all this is to bring Iran's civilian nuclear industry into the developing world wide, processed U-235 fuel "power pool". This pool, as it is developing, will be controlled by the US, Russia, UK, Australia (which as no nukes, yet) Japan and France. China, of course, is doing it's own thing. With the world wide renaissance in nuclear power uranium is not a 'strategic' resource. The problem is that processed fuel can be ... reprocessed over and over again, giving mining and control of uranium ore less "umph" politically. Only the US is stupid enough to try to actually bury it's "waste", when actually it's 98% usable fuel. This is the basis of the success (in large part) of the French nuclear industry.
Not allowing reprocessing of spent fuel or the processing into new fuel is a goal of the US. By removing energy sovereignty and tying countries to international agreements allows the US to increase it's own leverage internationally vis-a-vis nuclear power. The US wants developing countries to buy it's processed nuclear fuel on a restricted international market, not process it's own fuel.
The recent "deal" that Bush signed in India in "support" of their civilian nuclear program was designed to bring India into this knew pool as a client. Part of this deal meant the defunding of what is India's most important natural resource: thorium ore. This ore can be used in nuclear plants with less waste and isn't able to be reprocessed into nuclear weapons. Combined with weapons grade plutonium, it can actually burn this dangerous subtance and get rid of it totally. Many of India's engineers totally oppose this US-India deal for the reasons I stated above; an attack on the right of India to have a closed nuclear fuel cycle like China and Japan are developing, as Europe has had for decades. I suspect the US will push to get India to shut down it's small breeder research reactor for the exact same reasons.
The US opposition to Iran "completing it's fuel cycle" is based on this world outlook. Yes, it could have a genuine fear of another nuclear power on the block (US has yet to attack a country with nuclear weapons) because actually processing nukes almost totally removes US military intimidation.
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