[Marxism] Investors flock to zero percent treasury bills

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Wed Dec 10 07:21:19 MST 2008


NY Times, December 10, 2008
Investors Buy U.S. Debt at Zero Yield
By VIKAS BAJAJ and MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM

When was the last time you invested in something that you knew wouldn’t 
make money?

In the market equivalent of shoveling cash under the mattress, hordes of 
buyers were so eager on Tuesday to park money in the world’s safest 
investment, United States government debt, that they agreed to accept a 
zero percent rate of return.

The news sent a sobering signal: in these troubled economic times, when 
people have lost vast amounts on stocks, bonds and real estate, making 
an investment that offers security but no gain is tantamount to coming 
out ahead. This extremely cautious approach reflects concerns that a 
global recession could deepen next year, and continue to jeopardize all 
types of investments.

While this will lower the cost of borrowing for the United States 
government, economists worry that a widespread hunkering-down could have 
broader implications that could slow an economic recovery. If investors 
remain reluctant to put money into stocks and corporate bonds, that 
could choke off funds that businesses need to keep financing their 
day-to-day operations.

Investors accepted the zero percent rate in the government’s auction 
Tuesday of $30 billion worth of short-term securities that mature in 
four weeks. Demand was so great even for no return that the government 
could have sold four times as much.

In addition, for a brief moment, investors were willing to take a small 
loss for holding another ultra-safe security, the already-issued 
three-month Treasury bill.

In these times, it seems, the abnormal has now become acceptable. As 
America’s debt and deficit spiral from a parade of billion dollar 
bailouts and stimulus packages, fund managers, foreign governments and 
big retail investors reckon they will get more peace of mind by stashing 
their cash, rather than putting it toward any of the higher-yielding 
risk that is entailed in stocks, corporate bonds and consumer debt.

The rapid decline in Treasury yields — which since summer have headed 
toward lows not seen since the end of the World War II — also renders 
the Federal Reserve less effective, as investors and banks stuff the 
money that the central bank is pumping into the financial system into 
Treasuries, rather than fanning it out across the broader economy.

“The last time this happened was the Great Depression, when people are 
willing to accept no return on their money, or possibly even a negative 
return,” said Edward Yardeni, an independent analyst. “If people are so 
busy during the day just protecting the cash they have, it’s not a good 
sign.”

Stocks fell sharply as investors digested the implications. The Dow 
Jones industrial average dropped 242.85 points, or 2.72 percent, to 
8,691.33, and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index declined 2.31 
percent, to 888.67. The Nasdaq composite index lost 1.55 percent, to 
1,547.34.

If there is a silver lining to the Treasury market’s gyrations, it is 
that the United States can borrow money more cheaply from investors, 
whether they be the governments of China or Japan, or big fund managers. 
That could help Washington finance various programs intended to revive 
the ailing economy.

Borrowing by the Treasury has already ballooned since Congress approved 
the $700 billion financial rescue plan, and policy makers expect the 
federal budget deficit to swell further next year as the Big Three 
automakers and other industries look for support.

“That sucking sound is all the world’s capital going into the U.S. 
Treasury market,” Mr. Yardeni said, “which means the Treasury and the 
Fed can tap into that liquidity pool to finance TARP and offer mortgages 
at 4.5 percent.”

While that may offset some of the expense of the bailouts, economists 
say the fact that the United States must borrow so much to prop up large 
parts of the economy is a big cause for concern.

There are several explanations for the flight to safety in the bond 
market. The world of short-term money market funds, for instance, is 
still reeling from troubles at the Reserve Primary Fund, a money market 
fund frozen in September after it lost money on investments in Lehman 
Brothers. Since then, individual and large investors have put more than 
$200 billion into money funds that only invest in safe Treasury bills, 
according to iMoneyNet, a financial data publisher. At the same time, 
investors have withdrawn nearly $400 billion from prime funds.

That has forced portfolio managers to buy Treasury bills, driving down 
yields. “That group of investors has to invest in something,” said Max 
Bublitz, chief strategist at SCM Advisors. “They don’t have the luxury 
of saying, ‘I will stick it in the mattress.’ ”

Yields for longer term Treasury securities have also slumped, with the 
10-year now yielding 2.64 percent, down from 2.7 percent Monday and 3.75 
percent a month earlier. That decline appears to reflect several other 
forces. Many investors are seeking safety because they believe that the 
economy is in its worst recession since the Depression. Rather than 
inflation, which was a worry for some a few months ago, many are now 
worried about deflation, or falling prices.

Thomas H. Atteberry, a bond fund manager, said at current prices the 
market is predicting that the United States will suffer the kind of 
“lost decade” that Japan suffered in the 1990s.

“I have a hard time justifying that,” said Mr. Atteberry, a partner at 
First Pacific Advisors. “The Fed seems much more upfront about boosting 
its balance sheet by creating money.”

Another reason, analysts say, that Treasury yields may be falling is 
that foreign investors are using American government securities to 
protect themselves against the falling value of their own currencies. 
Many investors are also pulling money out of mutual funds and hedge 
funds, forcing portfolio managers to sell more risky assets and hold 
Treasuries, which are easier to sell.

And some fund managers are simply looking to dress up their portfolios 
before the year ends.

“There is no doubt that there is potentially some hoarding of cash in 
anticipation of potential redemptions,” said David Kovacs, a strategist 
at Turner Investment Partners. “People want to own it to show that they 
played it safe by year-end.”




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