sartesian at earthlink.net
Wed Jul 16 15:48:45 MDT 2008
I really try not to cherry-pick. I think that the Hubbertists have really
based much of their theory on cherry-picking: i.e the shrinking field size
of discoveries as time marches on; i.e the irrecoverability of high outputs.
I am certainly not a geologist, but the "basic geology" the Hubbertists hang
their hats on has been disputed and refuted by just as many geologists, just
as many petroleum engineers.
IMO, one of the problems with this argument, besides that we tend to repeat
ourselves ad nauseum, is that we really wind up arguing about entropy--
inevitable heat death of the universe; just the inevitable end period-- and
use peak oil as a "vehicle" for that discussion.
Are supplies of petroleum finite? Absolutely. Have we depleted reserves so
that availability and costs of energy are irrecoverable from present
conditions? There is simply no evidence to support that.
I do think the economics of capitalism, of oil production under capitalism
explains what has happened with that industry since 1973 (and before) and
the price changes of the commodity better than peak theory.
Speaking of geologists. Old joke in the petroleum industry: The Geologist
is always smiling because he is certain he will find the oil. The petroleum
engineer is always frowing because he knows his budget won't support the
cost of the find.
Something like that. Will check out the article.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jon Flanders" <jonflanders at jflan.net>
To: <sartesian at earthlink.net>
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2008 5:36 PM
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Oil
> For a good article on the North Sea see:
> On Wed, 2008-07-16 at 17:03 -0400, S. Artesian wrote:
>> The life of the North Sea fields has extended far beyond original
>> beyond later estimates, and in particular estimates of the peak oil
>> The North Sea fields exhibit not one peak and decline, but
>> peak/decline/peak/decline and the output most certainly does not follow
>> Hubbert bell curve.
> Its declining. The bottom line. You are of course entitled to your
> opinion as to why, cherry picked as it is to avoid basic geology.
> Jon Flanders
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