[Marxism] Does Peak Oil Theory Help the Bourgeoisie?
sartesian at earthlink.net
Wed Jun 11 05:06:38 MDT 2008
No, it was $30/barrel. And when Mark and I started arguing, 5 years ago,
the argument was not that we were approaching the peak, but that in fact we
were at the peak.
Mark also predicted that Bush would never invade Iraq, but believe me,
(having made quite a few wrong predictions myself), his error certainly
doesn't invalidate his analysis of oil production.
This current period is about the 5th or 6th time oil production is supposed
to have peaked.
I have read some, not all, the material of the peak theorists. Nothing I've
read explains OPEC's first price increases in 1973; the second round in
1979; the price break in 1986; the first Gulf War; the decline of prices to
$10/barrel; or even the rise in prices since 1998-- unless you believe that
we've been running out of oil for 35 years now, which is a little hard to
support based on production figures.
If, however, we look at levels of investment, costs of production, rates of
return on investment, actual production, actual reserves-- if we do
something quite simple like graph the price of oil vs. Bush's comments and
actions and threats-- if we look at the proportion of profits of the US S&P
500 that is accounted for by the oil corporations, I think we can make a
very intelligent analysis of why what has happened has happened, is
happening, and even make certain predictions about what will happen.
There is one more thing about cost-- it, cost, is a non-determinant factor
in Hubbert's theory. Cost is a derivative of actual physical depletion.
Production, on the Hubbert curve is supposed to decline, post-peak, quite
precipitously once we hit the slippery downward slope. His argument is not
that it is more expensive to find or produce the oil-- it is the actual
physical depletion of the resource.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jon Flanders" <jonflanders at jflan.net>
To: <sartesian at earthlink.net>
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 6:14 AM
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Does Peak Oil Theory Help the Bourgeoisie?
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