[Marxism] Are futures markets better than no planning at all?
durable at earthlink.net
Sun Jun 22 10:13:25 MDT 2008
I accept that today's high oil prices don't
reflect real scarcity. Misplaced blame for
high oil prices reflects a general confusion
about how the world works.
The expectation of future scarcity should
drive up prices beyond current supply/demand
factors. That's the way that futures markets
try to plan for the future. That is a poor
way to deal with future scarcity, but it's
better than no planning at all.
Not that the market system will ever provide
adequate planning, but if people from the
future were here to bid up prices we would be
forced to save some oil for them. This
reliance on market forces can not lead to
adequate planning for the future exactly
because all the interested parties are not
It was from Collin Clark I believe, I can't
find a reference, but 20 years ago I read
about how a forest manager would be better
off clear cutting and putting the money into
bonds if the interest rate exceeded the
sustainable yield. Twenty year trees are
impractical if interest rates are above 5%.
The fools in charge can't even give the
correct answer the question "Is solar
practical?" The standard bs is to compare
one's fuel bill with the mortgage
payments on a solar house. That forgets that
one day the solar house would be paid off and
the fuel bill will skyrocket. It also ignores
that the mortgage payment is a function of
policy, while the fuel bill is harder to
If they ever "get it" that increased
durability is one of the best ways to cope
with future resource scarcity and the limits
to consumption, then the imperialists could
tailor their paper economy to support that goal.
Anyway, the right thing must look beyond
current money flows. Capitalism will not look
ahead. It hates planning so much that is
willing to regulate its own futures markets
to prevent even that limited planning. Only
socialism might consider the future
adequately, but even socialists can deny the
limits to growth.
Yes, there is no oil supply problem, yet.
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