[Marxism] Iran war drums are rolling again -

nada dwaltersMIA at gmail.com
Tue Mar 17 17:59:04 MDT 2009


Fred wrote:

"I see no sign that the US government is anywhere near being able to give a
firm no the the challenges Israel is raising."

I do, because the already did, once. There is nothing stopping the US 
from saying "no" to the Zionists. The US interests are a lot broader 
than that of the minor imperialist Israeli state, IMO. Their interests 
overlap but are not congruent. I think any analysis that doesn't take 
this into account is useless.

The Iranians have already been open to negotiations. After collaborating 
militarily *in a bloc* with the US Military Sealift Command and US Air 
Force issues in 2003/2004 over the war in Afghanistan, the US rebuffed 
them after-the-fact on training the new Afghan military.

The US doesn't give a damn about the "Iranian Revolution". Why? Because 
it's historical; it's in the past. So what are the "gains" of this 
revolution? Does imperialism want the Shah back?  No, not really. (there 
has been neo-Con talk about bringing back the son-of-the Shah, but it 
died quickly).They want Iran to lighten up, "work with the US", etc etc. 
There is nothing *fundamental* about the legacy of that 1979 revolution 
that is of particular concern to Imperialism except one issue:, and it's 
a big one, and it's all about national sovereignty and the ability of 
imperialism to *control* the Mid-East, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf states.

Iran does what is in the governing ruling clique thinks is in the 
interest of Iran, and doesn't care about stepping on Imperialism's toes 
to do this. That is EVERYTHING. So the US can change this without 
changing the regime, which is, at any  level, incapable of doing. So it 
is a question of using the huge military stick of the US to beat Iran 
into submission. Which Iran has already sent signals it is willing to 
talk. This is all about negotiations and if the US thinks it has to 
unleash the Israelis or do it themselves, OR, start back channel 
negotiations, they will do so.

I think it's wrong to assume the US will only stand for a regime like 
the Kosovar or former Salvadorean gov't that does *everything* the US 
wants and won't do *anything* without flying it by the local US Embassy 
first. They cannot tolerate a regime like the Cuban one that is 
intrinsically opposed to US imperialism from every angle. But they don't 
need the thoroughly puppet regime either and they *know* they can't get 
one in Tehran. So they will negotiate, and part of that negotiations 
maybe air assaults on Iranian nuclear facilities. Maybe. Let's hope not.

David




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