[Marxism] The Roots of the Pale Green Shoots

guava tree theguavatree at gmail.com
Thu Nov 5 18:29:57 MST 2009


A lot of that CBE data leads to a graph that looks like this which
charts advance durable goods shipments, new orders and unfilled
orders: (warning, PDF!)

www.newyorkfed.org/research/directors_charts/pi_10.pdf

What needs explaining to me is how from 2005 to 2008 new orders and
shipments are staying relatively flat while Unfilled Orders start to
rise to a great degree. This is manifested, I think, by the fact that
the green dots of "new orders" in this period are on average *above*
(greater than) the blue "shipments" line. From 1994 to about 2004,
this was reversed with shipments mostly outpacing new orders (although
you can also see a rise in new orders relative to shipments in the
90s--which leads to the rise in unfilled orders in the 90s until
2001).

I guess my question is why shipments could not keep up with new orders
in 2005-2008? To me, this looks like the complete opposite of a
"demand side" problem--as you can see from the graph the unfilled
orders almost doubling in a 3 year period meaning that there was
plenty of work to be done, but an inability to rise to this demand. .
.

the excess of unfilled orders seems to point towards the decline of
productivity in industry (trend of falling rate of profit), thus a
lack of capital invested in durable goods manufacturing as opposed to
non-productive sectors: real estate/derivatives?




On Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM, S. Artesian <sartesian at earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> Also look at the Economic Indicators from the Census Bureau Economics's
> Briefing Room.  I think unfilled orders have continued to decline, and
> warehouse stocks have also fallen... so they manufacturers might be running
> down warehouse stocks, reducing that carrying cost when possible, and then
> producing for "just in time delivery,"  based on reduced demand and shorter
> lead times from order to production to shipment.
>




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