sartesian at earthlink.net
Thu Nov 19 21:54:26 MST 2009
Yesterday, Sandia asked for comments on the WSJ on the contraction in the
I think it, the contraction, is real and I don't see the economic problems
being resolved by simple policy changes.
About a year ago, CEPR-- Dean Baker et al-- produced a "don't worry"
forecast for the Venezuelan economy despite the fall in oil prices. The
CEPR pinned its forecast on trade balances.
There's much more to capital's ups and downs than trade balances-- first and
foremost is the fact that with the official exchange rate of the bolivar
being so much higher than the street exchange rate, fewer dollars are
available for companies to utilize for the payment of imports necessary for
Declining oil revenues exacerbate the situation.
However, call me suspicious and cynical, but part of me [maybe the best
part] is convinced that a portion of the impact on manufacturing is inflated
by the bourgeoisie as a sort of a "owners' strike," in order to
disorganize the workers, prevent actions on the shop floor, etc. What we
have here is, in part, the equivalent of a lock-out, but on a nationwide
So.. the economy as such can't or won't be rescued by changes in fiscal
policy, social spending, etc, because it's no longer an economy as such--
but the field for the conscious battle of classes.
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