[Marxism] Venezuela

S. Artesian sartesian at earthlink.net
Thu Nov 19 21:54:26 MST 2009


Yesterday, Sandia asked for comments on the WSJ on the contraction in the 
Venezuelan economy.

I think it, the contraction, is real and I don't see the economic problems 
being resolved by simple policy changes.

About a year ago, CEPR-- Dean Baker et al-- produced a "don't worry" 
forecast for the Venezuelan economy despite the fall in oil prices.  The 
CEPR pinned its forecast on trade balances.

There's much more to capital's ups and downs than trade balances-- first and 
foremost is the fact that with the official exchange rate of the bolivar 
being so much higher than the street exchange rate,  fewer dollars are 
available for companies to utilize for the payment of imports necessary for 
manufacturing.

Declining oil revenues exacerbate the situation.

However, call me suspicious and cynical, but part of me [maybe the best 
part] is convinced that a portion of the impact on manufacturing is inflated 
by the bourgeoisie as a sort of a  "owners' strike,"  in order to 
disorganize the workers, prevent actions on the shop floor, etc.  What we 
have here is, in part, the equivalent of a lock-out, but on a nationwide 
scale.

So.. the economy as such can't or won't be rescued by changes in fiscal 
policy, social spending, etc, because it's no longer an economy as such--  
but the field for the conscious battle of classes. 





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