[Marxism] As energy guzzlers meet on Iran, Pepe Escobar examines specifics of empire

nada dwaltersMIA at gmail.com
Thu Oct 1 13:07:46 MDT 2009


Ralph, this was, despite it's distraction theatrical flare, an excellent 
summation of the situation with the "All Gas Pipe Lines Lead to Europe" 
game.

I think there are two key things, mostly related to the reader in the 
bottom 1/4 of the article:

1. The years long cooperation between NATO stalwart Turkey and Charter 
Member of the Axis of Evil, Iran and...
2. That "Peak Gas" is going to effect the Russian in about 2 decades.

A few comments on both these points.

There is no doubt special offices are set up in the both the U.S. State 
Department and the Pentagon over how to deal with US "Friend Among 
Friends" Turkey and it's relationship with Iran. They have a lot of 
common interests, such as 'controlling' Iraq, oppressing their own 
Kurdish populations, and energy access for Iranian gas and oil, which 
Turkey has no problem being Iran's front-end of the gas store. They did 
it for Baathist Iraq during the worse days of the US imposed embargo, 
doing the same for Iran is simply a 'win-win' for the two countries.

I thought the article noted something also on this worth discussing, 
which is that the Obama administration is looking forward to the day of 
a closer, even diplomatically friendly, Iran-US relationship. This was 
already tested in the military block with Iran by the US Air Force in 
2003 during the Afghan war to overthrow the Taliban, something in the 
interests at that time of both the Bush gov't and the Iranian gov't. But 
the gas is the big deal and if the US choose to become kissy-face with 
the Iranians assuming the nuclear issue blows over, the US and it's 
allies in Europe will be in a position to use the trans-Turkish Nabucco 
pipeline to counter-Russia's growing financial-imperial ambitions in the 
energy sector.

I suspect, however, that even the most knuckle-dragging Cold-War 
throw-backs at the State Dept. realizes that Gasprom is NOT going away 
and they WILL sell lots of gas to the EU and, by default, NATO members, 
regardless of the Nabucco pipeline.

On the second point. I think it's worth nothing that pipelines NORTH to 
Russia from both Turkmenistan and Iran are in the  planning stages for 
the issue very issue of Russia's slowly dwindling gas resources. Russia, 
and Turkey, Iran and  Bulgaria, are all rapidly planning to build out 
their nuclear energy sectors motivated by a long term understanding that 
the price of gas is going to skyrocket it becomes more and more a 
'bridge' technology to a low carbon future. The Green & SPD 
ex-politicians both key players in the gas pipeline war, and with Greens 
everywhere "discovering" natural gas (see Joseph Romm and Amory Lovins, 
both shilling for natural gas), and world wide gas turbine production 
shooting up, the prices are going to follow, and with it, huge profits 
for all concerned.

So the gas producers want to push back Peak Gas as far as possible. The 
best method to do this is using nuclear. Iran has plans to build 19 
reactors (!!!), Russia, another 30 or so, Turkey, 4 to 8 and so on. It 
is getting nice and complex, isn't it? The more reactors, the less gas 
they have to burn for their own electrical and heating needs and the 
more to export and the less, down the road, they have to import.

And...and...the article never mentioned China for goodness sakes. The 
whole east and south Asian market is booming for gas, especially in it's 
LNG form. China signed a deal with Cheveron in Australia for like 40 
billion dollars of NG and LNG facilities.

BTW...what IS the problem with Iran and their seemingly inability to 
build enough gasoline refineries? They have to import about half the 
petrol for their vehicles from Saudi Arabia! It's quite insane. Shows a 
total mismanagement of the "Islamic economy" of Iran. But that's another 
story.

D.





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