# [Marxism] Fwd: Re: Calculating Octopus (Was: A question to mathematicians)

Mon Jul 12 16:25:01 MDT 2010

```<<On Jul 12, 2010, at 12:01 AM, Néstor Gorojovsky wrote:
>
> Can anyone calculate the probabilities that Paul the octopus has
> reached his results by chance?

1/28  =  . 0039

Statistically significant at the 99.6 % level.

Sheldrake strikes again!>>

Shane Mage >>

Since there is a disagreement between the number above and my number
below, I will demonstrate my reasoning.

Say the winner is always heads (H):

With 1 throw the possibilities are HT and TH or 1/2 probability =
2 to the first power
2

With 2 throws the possibilities are HH HT TH TT or 1/4
probability=                                    2 to the second power
4

With 3 throws the possibilities are HHH      HTH        HHT     HTT

probablity 1/8 =
2 to the third power                     8
TTT
THT        TTH      THH

With 4 throws the possibilities are HHHH     HHHT    HHTT    HTTT

HTHH      HTHT    HTTH    HHTH

Probability 1/16=  2
to the 4th power                         16
TTTT
TTTH    TTHH    THHH
THTT
THTH    THHT    TTHT

Etc...Leading to the conclusion that the possibility of 9 straight
passes = 2 to 9th power = 512 with the chance of this happening 1/512
or 511 to 1.

From the internet note this on 7 throws:

<<With an "unbiased" coin your odds of a single toss are 1/2.

With two tosses, it becomes 1/2*2.

With 7 tosses, it is 1/2^7 (that 2 to the 7th power) = 1/128.

Not impossible, but it's a very low percentage (less than 1% of the tries).

Best regards,

7 throws ends with 128 different combinations and 128 is 2 to the 7th power.

Then there is this with 10 throws

10 heads:   1/1024 = 0.0009765625>>   http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56660.html

The importance of this lies in the number "1024" which is 2 to the 10th power.

And 1/512 (which is 2 to the 9th power) = .002% even more impressive than the comrade's assertion above

On 11:59 AM, johnaimani wrote:
>  2 to the 9th power or 511-1.
>
> Now 2 to the 9th is 512 but there is one chance that the octopus
> selects correctly.
>
>

```