[Marxism] First Fighting Islamists, Now the Free Market
lnp3 at panix.com
Wed Dec 26 07:29:26 MST 2012
NY Times December 25, 2012
First Fighting Islamists, Now the Free Market
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
CAIRO — Hamdeen Sabahi was the most popular leader in the fight against
Egypt’s new Islamist-backed constitution. Now he is preparing for his
next battle: against Islamist leaders’ plans for Western-style
Do not listen to your allies in the Muslim Brotherhood, Mr. Sabahi said
he warned President Mohamed Morsi, of the Brotherhood’s political arm,
in a private meeting a few weeks ago. “Because the Brotherhood’s
economic and social thought is the same as Mubarak’s: the law of the
markets,” Mr. Sabahi said he had told Mr. Morsi, referring to Hosni
Mubarak, the former president. “You will just make the poor poorer, and
they will be angry with you just as they were with Mubarak.”
Mr. Sabahi, 58, a leftist in the style of another former president,
Gamal Abdel Nasser, frightens most economists. He is an outspoken
opponent of free-market economic moves in general as well as of a
pending $4.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund that
economists say is urgently needed to avert a catastrophic currency collapse.
But to the dismay of some Western diplomats, Mr. Sabahi is emerging as
an increasingly salient voice in Egyptian politics, in part because of
the bruising race to ratify the Islamist-backed charter. Both sides now
expect the anti-Islamist opposition to reap big gains in the coming
parliamentary vote, set to be held in two months against the backdrop of
a simultaneous debate over the I.M.F. loan.
Among Egypt’s opposition figures, Mr. Sabahi has the biggest base of
support in the streets. After campaigning as a dark horse in the
spring’s presidential election, he missed the runoff by fewer than a
million votes, finishing the first round almost neck and neck with Mr.
Economic overhaul now poses a critical test of Egypt’s fragile
democracy. Without enough trust in government, the changes to the
systems of taxes or subsidies needed to reduce the deficit could easily
stir new unrest in the streets, just as such moves have in the past. But
if Mr. Morsi expects his opponents to hold their fire just because
economists say the need is dire, Mr. Sabahi said, the president should
“Why support him, for what?” Mr. Sabahi said in an interview in the
borrowed offices of an Egyptian film director, decorated with pictures
of President Nasser but also of Che Guevara. “Is he a democratic ruler,
is he a revolutionary? Is he a model of a president, so I want him to
Mr. Sabahi, 58, known for writing poetry and quoting Arab literature and
for his blow-dried hair, was one of the few non-Islamist politicians
willing to endure imprisonment alongside the members of the Muslim
Brotherhood in the struggle against Egypt’s autocracy, giving him a
unique credibility among more secular leaders.
But after missing the presidential runoff this year, Mr. Sabahi declined
to endorse either Mr. Morsi or his opponent, Ahmed Shafik, a former
Mubarak prime minister. It was a choice between “tyranny in the name of
the state” and “tyranny in the name of religion,” Mr. Sabahi said at the
time in a television interview.
Mr. Sabahi argued in the interview that although Mr. Morsi won election
democratically, he has failed to govern as a democrat. “He is kicking
away the ladder he climbed,” Mr. Sabahi said, arguing that Mr. Morsi’s
decree setting his authority above the courts, if only for a month,
ended his credibility as a democrat.
The resulting discord between the Islamists and their opponents has
postponed the I.M.F. loan and helped bring Egypt closer than ever to
economic collapse. State media on Tuesday described a “dollarization
frenzy” gripping the country as people raced to sell Egyptian pounds.
The currency is at its lowest level in the past eight years.
Since Mr. Mubarak’s ouster, Egypt’s hard currency reserves have fallen
to $15 billion from $43 billion as it has struggled to prop up the
pound, and economists say the government now urgently needs a cash
infusion of about $14 billion in order to stay afloat. The $4.5 billion
I.M.F. loan is expected to act as a seal of approval for others, after
the I.M.F. concludes Egypt is at least on a path to greater balance.
If that loan does not come through soon, “the risk is a disaster,” said
Heba Handoussa of the Economic Research Forum. “We can’t afford to wait.”
There are other more Western-friendly faces of the opposition, like
Mohamed ElBaradei, the former United Nations diplomat, and Amr Moussa,
the former foreign minister. But neither has Mr. Sabahi’s following at
the grass roots, and he speaks for a segment of the Egyptian public
deeply suspicious of free markets and, especially, the I.M.F. A popular
singer, El Manawahly, has even recorded a song and music video opposing
the loan. “Oh monetary fund / Show me how to industrialize, plant and
Mr. Sabahi insists the I.M.F. loan would be unnecessary if the country
followed his radical prescriptions to turn away from Western economic
orthodoxy. In addition to steeper annual taxes on the rich, Mr. Sabahi
is calling for Egypt to meet its deficit with a one-time 20 percent tax
on the wealth of anyone with more than about $17 million, which he says
is about 1 percent of Egyptians.
He is calling for a ban on all exports of raw materials, including the
important commodities of natural gas and cotton, so they can be used for
domestic production. He proposes to increase fees on businesses that use
natural resources as well as on real estate and stock market
transactions. And at the same time he wants to expand Egypt’s already
bloated public sector to create more jobs for the poor.
Like others who came together to oppose the Islamist-backed
constitution, Mr. Sabahi said the coalition would now work through all
peaceful means to bring it down. Election regulators on Tuesday night
confirmed the results of the referendum approving the new charter, with
64 percent voting yes. Mr. Sabahi said his main complaint with the
document was the failure to guarantee “binding social and economic
rights” for the poor.
Although he acknowledged strong disagreements with some
business-friendly parties in the coalition, he said he hoped that it
would campaign as a bloc for Parliament and reverse the Brotherhood’s
“Then it will all be good: the president from the Brotherhood, and the
Parliament and cabinet from the democratic and national forces,” Mr.
Sabahi said. “Then the country will be fixed.”
Mr. Morsi, he argued, does not know how to appeal to Egyptian populism.
“Egypt needs a president who inspires Egyptians, who tells them,
‘Tomorrow will be beautiful, just be patient with me today,’ ” he said.
“Why do the poor endure? They endure because of hope. But Morsi doesn’t
understand the story, and he doesn’t know how to do it.”
He added: “He only gives sermons after Friday prayers. After 14
centuries as Muslims, he teaches us religion! Uncle, we want to eat, we
want jobs. But no, his mind is elsewhere.”
Mayy El Sheikh contributed reporting.
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