[Marxism] Global Warming Projections by Climate Scientists

ehrbar at greenhouse.economics.utah.edu ehrbar at greenhouse.economics.utah.edu
Thu Feb 14 15:53:56 MST 2013

If carbon emissions peak in 2020, then a worldwide annual
decline of 10 percent in carbon emissions is necessary to
have a 50/50 chance of avoiding a 2 centigrade increase in
temperature.  This is from p. 9 of the pdf cited below.
Such a decline is unheard-of, many people would say it is
impossible.  Russia in the 1990s had a 5% decline per year
for about 10 years, but at the same time GNP grew by half.
When France switched to nuclear electricity in the 1970s,
the emissions for the whole economy only declined by 1% per

This is from a well-written 25-page pdf about the carbon
budget approach and its implications, which can be
downloaded for free.  Auther iss Kevin Anderson, Deputy
Director of the Tyndall Centre, UK:

Kevin Anderson, "Climate Change Going Beyond
Dangerous---Brutal Numbers and Tenuous Hope," in the book
_Climate, Development, and Equity_ published by Dag
Hammarskjoeld Foundation and What Next Forum, Stockholm

Anderson calls the hope "tenuous" because only a radical cut
in energy consumption can achieve 10 percent decrease of
carbon emissions year after year.  Replacement of fossil
fuels by renewables cannot go as quickly.

On pp 27/8 Anderson blasts market-based approaches:

"Net costs are now essentially meaningless.  We live in a
non-marginal world, where very large changes are already
occurring, both in terms of impacts of a changing climate
and of societal responses and stresses, whether in relation
to mitigation or adaptation.  These step-changes will only
escalate as global warming proceeds.  Conventional market
economics is premised on understanding and making small
(marginal) changes.  But with climate change, we are not
talking about small changes; we are dealing with a world of
very large changes, outside the realm of standard market
theory. ...  [N]eoclassical (market) economists continue to
propose marginal-based theories of small changes, regardless
of the scale of the problem; this is not only academically
disingineous but also dangerously misleading.  With global
warming, we are dealing with non-marginal, major changes
occurring very rapidly; a type of problem that
market-economics is ill-equipped to address.  That is not to
say that costs, and particularly prices and market
economics, cannot be helpful in dealing with niche aspects
of climate change; but they are not helpful in addressing
the overall challenge."

Hans G Ehrbar

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