[Marxism] Prediction: Ukraine's love affair with the West will be short-lived

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Tue Feb 25 05:33:30 MST 2014

Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, which would 
have to provide the billions of dollars in urgently needed credit, 
issued a statement on Monday saying only, “We are talking to all 
interested parties.”

The Obama administration said it was prepared to provide financial 
assistance beyond that from the I.M.F., but it did not say how much.

“This support can complement an I.M.F. program by helping to make 
reforms easier and by putting Ukraine in a position to invest more in 
health and education to help develop Ukraine’s human capital and 
strengthen its social safety net,” the White House spokesman, Jay 
Carney, told reporters in Washington.

The I.M.F. has made clear it is unwilling to help Ukraine without a 
commitment from the country to undertake painful austerity measures and 
other restructuring. Mr. Yanukovych’s resistance to those demands was a 
principal reason he backed away from a trade deal with Europe and sought 
help from Russia instead.

Given the animosity of the new Ukrainian government toward Russia, Ivan 
Tchakarov, an analyst with Citibank, said that Ukraine could turn only 
to the West for help, and would inevitably face demands for tough 
reforms and a near-certain recession as a result.

“Assuming that Russia will pass, it will be up to the I.M.F. and E.U. to 
pick up the tab,” Mr. Tchakarov said. “The I.M.F. will impose hard 
constraints on the economy, and these will most probably mean a 
recession in 2014.”

Still, Mr. Tchakarov noted that there would be long-term benefits to 
Ukraine’s undertaking desperately needed measures, like ending subsidies 
of gas prices and cutting the thickets of business regulations that 
weigh down the economy. These actions could potentially allow it to 
emerge far stronger, like its neighbors Poland and the Baltic countries, 
he said.

--NY Times, "Amid Political Upheaval, Ukraine Faces Dire Need for 
Economic Help", Feb. 25 2014

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