[Marxism] Fwd: Oil Price Fall: Saudi Arabi targets US Shale Oil, Iran, Iraq, Russia | Informed Comment

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Sat Nov 29 07:28:50 MST 2014

So how does this all relate to peak oil? It seems to me that if shale 
oil can't turn a profit, it will increase the demand on conventionally 
drilled oil and hence accelerate its exhaustion. I think the idea that 
oil is about to disappear any time soon is simplistic but the tendency 
for desperate violence over control of diminishing resources does 
confirm in its way the peak oil hypothesis. In any event, I think that 
"peak oil" is a much more serious problem. On Thanksgiving day, we had a 
friend of my wife from Istanbul and her husband over for dinner (we ate 
hindi, as the Turks call the bird.) Her dissertation was on competition 
for water in the Middle East, the Euphrates specifically. Her comment: 
declining water supplies in the region have more to do with the wars 
than Shi'a/Sunni conflicts.


It is clear that among the major losers in the fall in the price of 
Brent crude petroleum from $115 a barrel last summer to about $75 a 
barrel today are Russia, Iraq and Iran. Petroleum sales are 50% of 
Russia’s income, and are also central for Iran and Iraq.
But the big loser will likely be shale oil producers and prospectors in 
the US, who probably cannot make a profit if the price falls into the 60s.


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