[Marxism] Fwd: Oil Price Fall: Saudi Arabi targets US Shale Oil, Iran, Iraq, Russia | Informed Comment
lnp3 at panix.com
Sat Nov 29 07:28:50 MST 2014
So how does this all relate to peak oil? It seems to me that if shale
oil can't turn a profit, it will increase the demand on conventionally
drilled oil and hence accelerate its exhaustion. I think the idea that
oil is about to disappear any time soon is simplistic but the tendency
for desperate violence over control of diminishing resources does
confirm in its way the peak oil hypothesis. In any event, I think that
"peak oil" is a much more serious problem. On Thanksgiving day, we had a
friend of my wife from Istanbul and her husband over for dinner (we ate
hindi, as the Turks call the bird.) Her dissertation was on competition
for water in the Middle East, the Euphrates specifically. Her comment:
declining water supplies in the region have more to do with the wars
than Shi'a/Sunni conflicts.
It is clear that among the major losers in the fall in the price of
Brent crude petroleum from $115 a barrel last summer to about $75 a
barrel today are Russia, Iraq and Iran. Petroleum sales are 50% of
Russia’s income, and are also central for Iran and Iraq.
But the big loser will likely be shale oil producers and prospectors in
the US, who probably cannot make a profit if the price falls into the 60s.
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