[Marxism] From the Death of the Arab Spring to the Defeat in Venez uela

Jim Farmelant farmelantj at juno.com
Mon Dec 7 05:25:41 MST 2015


The election results should not be a total surprise. World oil prices have been on the decline for years and this has hit the Venezuelan economy hard. On the other hand, Chavism has, over the past seventeen years, created a strong popular movement which I think will make it difficult for the opposition to roll back the reforms that the Chavez and Maduro have introduced over that time period. Maduro will obviously have to take stock in light of these results. However, the opposition will have to make some crucial decisions as to what to do with their electoral victory.  Up to now they have not been noted for their strategic brilliance, so they might wind up overplaying their hand, which ought to work to Maduro's advantage later on. If they were smart, they ought to announce their support for some of the main reforms introduced by Chavism but promise to "make them work better."


Jim Farmelant
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---------- Original Message ----------
From: Stuart Munckton via Marxism <marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu>
To: Jim Farmelant <farmelantj at juno.com>
Subject: Re: [Marxism] From the Death of the Arab Spring to the Defeat in Venezuela
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 17:58:02 +1100

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as bad as the defeat is, and it is a dangerous set back for all of Latin
America, it is not on the scale of the defeat ins in Egypt or even Greece
-- at least not yet, although it may prefigure more defeats. To loose the
assembly is bad but the government remains in place and the right wing have
no project and have not been elected with a mandate to unwind the
revolution's gains. if they attempt to, which you would assume they will to
whatever degree they judge is wise, they tear off their masks and give a
new generation that has never lived under any government but a Chavista
government a lesson in the reality of hte old elite.

Rolling back the gains wil also come up against an organised mass movement
developed over nearly two decades. So we should not assume that just
because they can win a vote on the back of terror and blackmail (and
incapacity of the government to act decisively int he face of worsening
problems) that they will have an easy time of it.The revolutionary mass
movement and its leadership obviously need to resolve some serious problems
and fund a way forward -but that revolutionary mass movement remains and
its far from totally defeated, it has just suffered a dangerous set back.,
but in a context where the political discussion is way to the left and the
right have to wear left masks to win.

On 7 December 2015 at 17:42, Gary MacLennan via Marxism <
marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote:

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>
> One could add Syriza's disastrous capitulation to the above heading. Not
> good, is my first reaction.  Those who thought (and I include myself among
> them) that the periphery in South America or in the Arab World would give
> birth to a new revolutionary tide are licking their wounds.
>
> It is true that now my attention is swinging back to Europe. I do hope that
> is not my Pangloss Reflex in action.  But for all the setbacks, and I do
> not deny the seriousness of the  defeats in Egypt, Greece and now
> Venezuela,  I still do not believe that in the current period the
> Bourgeoisie have won a decisive epoch defining victory. The crucial
> battlefield is Europe.  I know that might sound like my Eurocentric
> tendency taking hold.  Perhaps, but the Scottish, Spanish, Irish,
> Portuguese working classes are still close to revolt.
>
> "It is possible, possible, possible. It must be possible".
>
> comradely
>
> Gary
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