[Marxism] Fwd: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests

michael a. lebowitz mlebowit at sfu.ca
Tue Apr 18 23:00:35 MDT 2017


Hi Gary,
     I've been away from vzla for a while now and am restricted to what 
I get from aporrea, venezuelanalyis, what marta watches on telesur, 
globovision and vtv plus letters we receive from friends there. 
Certainly, the situation is grim there-- not impossible for a 
revolutionary government with Chavez's periodic audacity-- but the 
current government has certainly been stalled [presumably because of 
competing agendas and visions]. It occasionally takes important steps 
[like the move to local food distribution, the CLACs], and the response 
this week looks critical.
Steve Ellner knows well what is happening, and I read his message in 
relation to tomorrow's opposition mobilisation [which I posted earlier] 
as saying, 'no pasaran'. Maduro's call for the 'red tide' vs the 
opposition march tomorrow says the same, and the focus on arming the 
militias [which should have been done already] points to the longer 
struggle. Years ago, Marx said that slaveholders' revolts put the sword 
in the hands of the social revolution. Let's hope.
     in solidarity,
         michael

On 4/18/2017 5:43 PM, Gary MacLennan wrote:
> Is the Maduro government going to fall, Michael?  he seems to be 
> trapped half way to the revolution and surrounded by enemies who see 
> compromise for weakness.  I am all for broad coalitions etc, a la 
> Chavez, but the Right seem to want to call a ruthless Leninism into 
> being. we had Allende and they had Pinochet.
>
> comradely
>
> Gary
>
> On Wed, Apr 19, 2017 at 10:14 AM, Michael Lebowitz via Marxism 
> <marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu <mailto:marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu>> wrote:
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>     > From: "Steve Ellner" <sellner74 at gmail.com
>     <mailto:sellner74 at gmail.com>>
>     > Date: April 18, 2017 at 2:56:11 PM PDT
>     > To: "Jesus Rodriguez Espinoza" <jreaporrea at gmail.com
>     <mailto:jreaporrea at gmail.com>>, Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza
>     <jesus.rodriguez.espinoza at gmail.com
>     <mailto:jesus.rodriguez.espinoza at gmail.com>>, "Joelle Fishman"
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>     "John Hammond" <jhammond at hunter.cuny.edu
>     <mailto:jhammond at hunter.cuny.edu>>, "John Minns"
>     <John.Minns at anu.edu.au <mailto:John.Minns at anu.edu.au>>, "Jose
>     Gregorio Tovar" <tovarjo1 at gmail.com <mailto:tovarjo1 at gmail.com>>,
>     "Joshua Frank" <joshuafrank78 at gmail.com
>     <mailto:joshuafrank78 at gmail.com>>, "Joshua Frens-String"
>     <jfstring at gmail.com <mailto:jfstring at gmail.com>>, "Juan Grigera"
>     <j.grigera at ucl.ac.uk <mailto:j.grigera at ucl.ac.uk>>, "julia Buxton"
>     <J.D.Buxton at bradford.ac.uk <mailto:J.D.Buxton at bradford.ac.uk>>,
>     "julia Buxton" <juliadbuxton at yahoo.co.uk
>     <mailto:juliadbuxton at yahoo.co.uk>>, "Julio Escalona"
>     <julio.escalona99 at yahoo.com <mailto:julio.escalona99 at yahoo.com>>,
>     "June Erlick" <jerlick at fas.harvard.edu
>     <mailto:jerlick at fas.harvard.edu>>, "Justin Delacour"
>     <justin.delacour at yahoo.com <mailto:justin.delacour at yahoo.com>>,
>     "Keane Bhatt" <keane.l.bhatt at gmail.com
>     <mailto:keane.l.bhatt at gmail.com>>, "Kevin Young"
>     <kyoung1984 at gmail.com <mailto:kyoung1984 at gmail.com>>, "Kim Scipes"
>     <kimscipes at earthlink.net <mailto:kimscipes at earthlink.net>>, "Lee
>     Sustar" <lsustar at ameritech.net <mailto:lsustar at ameritech.net>>,
>     "Leo Panitch" <lpanitch at yorku.ca <mailto:lpanitch at yorku.ca>>,
>     "leonardo bracamonte" <lebracamonte at gmail.com
>     <mailto:lebracamonte at gmail.com>>, "Lucas Alvarez"
>     <lalvarezm57 at gmail.com <mailto:lalvarezm57 at gmail.com>>, "Lucas
>     Koerner" <lmkoerner11 at gmail.com <mailto:lmkoerner11 at gmail.com>>,
>     "Luis Alberto Andarcia" <luisandarcia at yahoo.com
>     <mailto:luisandarcia at yahoo.com>>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez"
>     <luis.angosto-ferrandez at sydney.edu.au
>     <mailto:luis.angosto-ferrandez at sydney.edu.au>>, "Luis Ricardo
>     Davila" <lrdavila53 at hotmail.com <mailto:lrdavila53 at hotmail.com>>,
>     "Magda Andarcia" <magda_luisa2905 at hotmail.com
>     <mailto:magda_luisa2905 at hotmail.com>>, "Manuel Anselmi"
>     <anselmimanuel at gmail.com <mailto:anselmimanuel at gmail.com>>, "Marc
>     Becker" <marcbecker2 at gmail.com <mailto:marcbecker2 at gmail.com>>,
>     "Marc Becker" <marc at yachana.org <mailto:marc at yachana.org>>, "Maria
>     Riera" <nenariera12 at gmail.com <mailto:nenariera12 at gmail.com>>,
>     "Mariano Feliz" <marianfeliz at gmail.com
>     <mailto:marianfeliz at gmail.com>>, "Mario Ayala"
>     <marioayala75 at yahoo.com.ar <mailto:marioayala75 at yahoo.com.ar>>,
>     "Mark Weisbrot" <weisbrot at cepr.net <mailto:weisbrot at cepr.net>>,
>     "Maxwell Cameron" <cameron at politics.ubc.ca
>     <mailto:cameron at politics.ubc.ca>>, "Meredith Dodge"
>     <mdodge at zianet.com <mailto:mdodge at zianet.com>>, "Michael Albert"
>     <sysop at zmag.org <mailto:sysop at zmag.org>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
>     <mlebowit at sfu.ca <mailto:mlebowit at sfu.ca>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
>     <mlebowit at gmail.com <mailto:mlebowit at gmail.com>>, "Nancy Postero"
>     <npostero at ucsd.edu <mailto:npostero at ucsd.edu>>, "Naomi Schiller"
>     <nschiller at brooklyn.cuny.edu
>     <mailto:nschiller at brooklyn.cuny.edu>>, "Pablo Morales"
>     <llpmmoralesll at gmail.com <mailto:llpmmoralesll at gmail.com>>, "Pablo
>     Navarrete" <pablo at alborada.net <mailto:pablo at alborada.net>>,
>     "Pablo Pozzi" <pablo.pozzi at yahoo.com.ar
>     <mailto:pablo.pozzi at yahoo.com.ar>>, "Pascal Lupien"
>     <plupien at uoguelph.ca <mailto:plupien at uoguelph.ca>>, "Patrick
>     Clark" <patrickclark1986 at gmail.com
>     <mailto:patrickclark1986 at gmail.com>>, "Peter Ranis"
>     <pranis at york.cuny.edu <mailto:pranis at york.cuny.edu>>, "Peter
>     Roman" <PROMAN at hostos.cuny.edu <mailto:PROMAN at hostos.cuny.edu>>,
>     "Peter Winn" <pwinn2 at gmail.com <mailto:pwinn2 at gmail.com>>, "Ralph
>     Newmark" <R.Newmark at latrobe.edu.au
>     <mailto:R.Newmark at latrobe.edu.au>>, "Renaud Lambert"
>     <renaud.lambert at mondediplo.com
>     <mailto:renaud.lambert at mondediplo.com>>, "Richard Hillman"
>     <rhillman1 at tampabay.rr.com <mailto:rhillman1 at tampabay.rr.com>>,
>     "Robert Austin" <rwaustin64 at gmail.com
>     <mailto:rwaustin64 at gmail.com>>, "Rosalind Bresnahan"
>     <rosalind568 at gmail.com <mailto:rosalind568 at gmail.com>>, "Sara
>     Motta" <sara.c.motta at newcastle.edu.au
>     <mailto:sara.c.motta at newcastle.edu.au>>, "Stephany Tovar"
>     <stephanytovar.m at hotmail.com
>     <mailto:stephanytovar.m at hotmail.com>>, "Sujatha Fernandes"
>     <sujathaf at yahoo.com <mailto:sujathaf at yahoo.com>>, "Susan Spronk"
>     <Susan.Spronk at uOttawa.ca>, "T.M. Scruggs" <tm-scruggs at uiowa.edu
>     <mailto:tm-scruggs at uiowa.edu>>, "Teresa Meade" <meadet at union.edu
>     <mailto:meadet at union.edu>>, "Tom Chodor" <tom.chodor at monash.edu
>     <mailto:tom.chodor at monash.edu>>, "Victor Hugo" <vhmajano at gmail.com
>     <mailto:vhmajano at gmail.com>>, "Victor Wallis" <zendive at aol.com
>     <mailto:zendive at aol.com>>, "Walter Lippmann"
>     <walterlx at earthlink.net <mailto:walterlx at earthlink.net>>, "William
>     Robinson" <w.i.robinson1 at gmail.com
>     <mailto:w.i.robinson1 at gmail.com>>, "Zuleika Arashiro"
>     <zuleika.arashiro at gmail.com <mailto:zuleika.arashiro at gmail.com>>
>     > Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests
>     >
>     >
>     > WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN  OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH
>     DOWNTOWN CARACAS?
>     >>
>     >> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles
>     and other Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach
>     downtown Caracas. The ostensible goal is to present a petition to
>     the Defensoria del Pueblo. In a normal situation, such a
>     mobilization would certainly be legitimate. But opposition leaders
>     fully realize that the government will not allow for the
>     protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to
>     the downtown area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march
>     that led into the coup against President Chávez, when the
>     opposition newspaper El Nacional published the large banner
>     headline “The Final Battle in Miraflores,” encouraging people that
>     day to march to the presidential palace.
>     >>
>     >> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith,
>     were to allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of
>     Caracas. Such a scenario would go something like this:
>     >>
>     >> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition
>     leaders and grants them permission to march to the center of
>     Caracas. The opposition agrees to limit the march to 35,000 people
>     and to end the protest in the late afternoon.
>     >>
>     >> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas.
>     Everything goes according to plan.
>     >>
>     >> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as
>     he has said in the past) announces that the opposition will remain
>     in the center of Caracas until their demands are met. The less
>     extremist leaders such as Capriles now call on their followers to
>     join the protest and people come in from the eastern part of
>     Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and from the west as
>     far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now 750,000
>     protesters in the center of Caracas.
>     >>
>     >> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which
>     during the 2014 protests were responsible for widespread
>     destruction and violence and have acted in a similar way in recent
>     days, go on a rampage and clash with national guardsmen and police.
>     >>
>     >> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets
>     juxtapose the confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security
>     forces, on the one hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the
>     other, thus leaving the impression that the government is using
>     random force against peaceful protesters (April 11, 2002 anyone?).
>     >>
>     >> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on
>     the wall in which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all
>     imagine scenarios seven, eight and nine.
>     >>
>     >> from my blog
>     http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html
>     <http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html>
>     >>
>     >>
>     >
>     >
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-- 
---------------------
Michael A. Lebowitz
Professor Emeritus
Economics Department
Simon Fraser University
8888 University Drive
Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6
Home:   Phone 604-689-9510
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