[Marxism] Fwd: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests
michael a. lebowitz
mlebowit at sfu.ca
Tue Apr 18 23:00:35 MDT 2017
I've been away from vzla for a while now and am restricted to what
I get from aporrea, venezuelanalyis, what marta watches on telesur,
globovision and vtv plus letters we receive from friends there.
Certainly, the situation is grim there-- not impossible for a
revolutionary government with Chavez's periodic audacity-- but the
current government has certainly been stalled [presumably because of
competing agendas and visions]. It occasionally takes important steps
[like the move to local food distribution, the CLACs], and the response
this week looks critical.
Steve Ellner knows well what is happening, and I read his message in
relation to tomorrow's opposition mobilisation [which I posted earlier]
as saying, 'no pasaran'. Maduro's call for the 'red tide' vs the
opposition march tomorrow says the same, and the focus on arming the
militias [which should have been done already] points to the longer
struggle. Years ago, Marx said that slaveholders' revolts put the sword
in the hands of the social revolution. Let's hope.
On 4/18/2017 5:43 PM, Gary MacLennan wrote:
> Is the Maduro government going to fall, Michael? he seems to be
> trapped half way to the revolution and surrounded by enemies who see
> compromise for weakness. I am all for broad coalitions etc, a la
> Chavez, but the Right seem to want to call a ruthless Leninism into
> being. we had Allende and they had Pinochet.
> On Wed, Apr 19, 2017 at 10:14 AM, Michael Lebowitz via Marxism
> <marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu <mailto:marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu>> wrote:
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> "June Erlick" <jerlick at fas.harvard.edu
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> <kyoung1984 at gmail.com <mailto:kyoung1984 at gmail.com>>, "Kim Scipes"
> <kimscipes at earthlink.net <mailto:kimscipes at earthlink.net>>, "Lee
> Sustar" <lsustar at ameritech.net <mailto:lsustar at ameritech.net>>,
> "Leo Panitch" <lpanitch at yorku.ca <mailto:lpanitch at yorku.ca>>,
> "leonardo bracamonte" <lebracamonte at gmail.com
> <mailto:lebracamonte at gmail.com>>, "Lucas Alvarez"
> <lalvarezm57 at gmail.com <mailto:lalvarezm57 at gmail.com>>, "Lucas
> Koerner" <lmkoerner11 at gmail.com <mailto:lmkoerner11 at gmail.com>>,
> "Luis Alberto Andarcia" <luisandarcia at yahoo.com
> <mailto:luisandarcia at yahoo.com>>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez"
> <luis.angosto-ferrandez at sydney.edu.au
> <mailto:luis.angosto-ferrandez at sydney.edu.au>>, "Luis Ricardo
> Davila" <lrdavila53 at hotmail.com <mailto:lrdavila53 at hotmail.com>>,
> "Magda Andarcia" <magda_luisa2905 at hotmail.com
> <mailto:magda_luisa2905 at hotmail.com>>, "Manuel Anselmi"
> <anselmimanuel at gmail.com <mailto:anselmimanuel at gmail.com>>, "Marc
> Becker" <marcbecker2 at gmail.com <mailto:marcbecker2 at gmail.com>>,
> "Marc Becker" <marc at yachana.org <mailto:marc at yachana.org>>, "Maria
> Riera" <nenariera12 at gmail.com <mailto:nenariera12 at gmail.com>>,
> "Mariano Feliz" <marianfeliz at gmail.com
> <mailto:marianfeliz at gmail.com>>, "Mario Ayala"
> <marioayala75 at yahoo.com.ar <mailto:marioayala75 at yahoo.com.ar>>,
> "Mark Weisbrot" <weisbrot at cepr.net <mailto:weisbrot at cepr.net>>,
> "Maxwell Cameron" <cameron at politics.ubc.ca
> <mailto:cameron at politics.ubc.ca>>, "Meredith Dodge"
> <mdodge at zianet.com <mailto:mdodge at zianet.com>>, "Michael Albert"
> <sysop at zmag.org <mailto:sysop at zmag.org>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
> <mlebowit at sfu.ca <mailto:mlebowit at sfu.ca>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
> <mlebowit at gmail.com <mailto:mlebowit at gmail.com>>, "Nancy Postero"
> <npostero at ucsd.edu <mailto:npostero at ucsd.edu>>, "Naomi Schiller"
> <nschiller at brooklyn.cuny.edu
> <mailto:nschiller at brooklyn.cuny.edu>>, "Pablo Morales"
> <llpmmoralesll at gmail.com <mailto:llpmmoralesll at gmail.com>>, "Pablo
> Navarrete" <pablo at alborada.net <mailto:pablo at alborada.net>>,
> "Pablo Pozzi" <pablo.pozzi at yahoo.com.ar
> <mailto:pablo.pozzi at yahoo.com.ar>>, "Pascal Lupien"
> <plupien at uoguelph.ca <mailto:plupien at uoguelph.ca>>, "Patrick
> Clark" <patrickclark1986 at gmail.com
> <mailto:patrickclark1986 at gmail.com>>, "Peter Ranis"
> <pranis at york.cuny.edu <mailto:pranis at york.cuny.edu>>, "Peter
> Roman" <PROMAN at hostos.cuny.edu <mailto:PROMAN at hostos.cuny.edu>>,
> "Peter Winn" <pwinn2 at gmail.com <mailto:pwinn2 at gmail.com>>, "Ralph
> Newmark" <R.Newmark at latrobe.edu.au
> <mailto:R.Newmark at latrobe.edu.au>>, "Renaud Lambert"
> <renaud.lambert at mondediplo.com
> <mailto:renaud.lambert at mondediplo.com>>, "Richard Hillman"
> <rhillman1 at tampabay.rr.com <mailto:rhillman1 at tampabay.rr.com>>,
> "Robert Austin" <rwaustin64 at gmail.com
> <mailto:rwaustin64 at gmail.com>>, "Rosalind Bresnahan"
> <rosalind568 at gmail.com <mailto:rosalind568 at gmail.com>>, "Sara
> Motta" <sara.c.motta at newcastle.edu.au
> <mailto:sara.c.motta at newcastle.edu.au>>, "Stephany Tovar"
> <stephanytovar.m at hotmail.com
> <mailto:stephanytovar.m at hotmail.com>>, "Sujatha Fernandes"
> <sujathaf at yahoo.com <mailto:sujathaf at yahoo.com>>, "Susan Spronk"
> <Susan.Spronk at uOttawa.ca>, "T.M. Scruggs" <tm-scruggs at uiowa.edu
> <mailto:tm-scruggs at uiowa.edu>>, "Teresa Meade" <meadet at union.edu
> <mailto:meadet at union.edu>>, "Tom Chodor" <tom.chodor at monash.edu
> <mailto:tom.chodor at monash.edu>>, "Victor Hugo" <vhmajano at gmail.com
> <mailto:vhmajano at gmail.com>>, "Victor Wallis" <zendive at aol.com
> <mailto:zendive at aol.com>>, "Walter Lippmann"
> <walterlx at earthlink.net <mailto:walterlx at earthlink.net>>, "William
> Robinson" <w.i.robinson1 at gmail.com
> <mailto:w.i.robinson1 at gmail.com>>, "Zuleika Arashiro"
> <zuleika.arashiro at gmail.com <mailto:zuleika.arashiro at gmail.com>>
> > Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests
> > WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH
> DOWNTOWN CARACAS?
> >> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles
> and other Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach
> downtown Caracas. The ostensible goal is to present a petition to
> the Defensoria del Pueblo. In a normal situation, such a
> mobilization would certainly be legitimate. But opposition leaders
> fully realize that the government will not allow for the
> protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to
> the downtown area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march
> that led into the coup against President Chávez, when the
> opposition newspaper El Nacional published the large banner
> headline “The Final Battle in Miraflores,” encouraging people that
> day to march to the presidential palace.
> >> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith,
> were to allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of
> Caracas. Such a scenario would go something like this:
> >> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition
> leaders and grants them permission to march to the center of
> Caracas. The opposition agrees to limit the march to 35,000 people
> and to end the protest in the late afternoon.
> >> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas.
> Everything goes according to plan.
> >> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as
> he has said in the past) announces that the opposition will remain
> in the center of Caracas until their demands are met. The less
> extremist leaders such as Capriles now call on their followers to
> join the protest and people come in from the eastern part of
> Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and from the west as
> far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now 750,000
> protesters in the center of Caracas.
> >> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which
> during the 2014 protests were responsible for widespread
> destruction and violence and have acted in a similar way in recent
> days, go on a rampage and clash with national guardsmen and police.
> >> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets
> juxtapose the confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security
> forces, on the one hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the
> other, thus leaving the impression that the government is using
> random force against peaceful protesters (April 11, 2002 anyone?).
> >> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on
> the wall in which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all
> imagine scenarios seven, eight and nine.
> >> from my blog
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Michael A. Lebowitz
Simon Fraser University
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