[Marxism] Oh to be in England now that April's there...

Nick Fredman nick.j.fredman at gmail.com
Sat Apr 22 20:03:39 MDT 2017


On Sun, 23 Apr 2017 at 11:25 am, Gary MacLennan via Marxism <
marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote:

>
>
> Then the reality of the polls struck.  There has been a large swing to the
> Tories.  Alas, alas for Hamlin...


Richard Seymour is his very useful Corbyn book from last year points out
that the polls in predicting the next election are likely biased - in the
technical statistical sense of not accurately reflecting the population
from which the sample us drawn. This is because the published figures
weight against young and poor respondents, on the assumption that these
groups will abstain the same high proportions as the last few elections,
whereas hopefully the Corbinistas will rally the young and poor in higher
proportions. That seems likely but even if Corbin new tack of more directly
naming and attacking the ruling class strikes a chord, it's hard too see a
20 percentage point deficit being made up.

Some Facebook friends are also hoping for a Melanchon trajectory: Bur it's
also hard to see this happening in a big way, as the UK is very different
from France where far left candidates are treated seriously and the far
left has much more institutional weight, e.g. the Communist Party's more
than 500 elected officials.

But the only thing for socialists in the UK to do is surely to throw
themselves into building the Corbyn movement as much as possible, even if
it turns out to be a limited and temporary cohering of the radicalisation
of the past decade, as Seymour suspects. Only the small Socialist
Resistance group, and individuals, seem to be doing that.





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