[Marxism] The British Election

Nick Fredman nick.j.fredman at gmail.com
Wed May 31 22:59:00 MDT 2017


This is my recent comment on Facebook regarding YouGov's seat-based
modelling https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/. Sinn Fein
staffer Duroyan Fertl replied "not going to happen, especially not in those
circumstances" to my last suggestion.

This is getting *very* interesting. In YouGov's new seat-based model the
Tory overall lead over Labour is down to 3 points (their latest
conventional poll gives the same), and their seat estimate gives the Tories
a minority (311, a majority being 326), while Labour+SNP+Greens+Plaid+Lib
Dems would be a (bare) majority, as probably would a much better combo of
Labour+SNP+Greens+Plaid+Sinn Fein (assuming the latter win at least 6 out
of 18 Irish seats, as the survey doesn't included occupied Ireland, and the
big assumption that they might give up their abstentionism to join a
relatively left UK government).


On Thu, Jun 1, 2017 at 11:51 AM, Gary MacLennan via Marxism <
marxism at lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote:

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> It is foolish to believe the polls too much in a first past the post
> context such as the UK, but as the gap between the Labour Party and the
> Tories seems to narrow dramatically it is hard to resist the delirium.
>
> My sources are Aaron Bastani on twitter as listers would know and the group
> that he is linked to George Galloway, Richard Seymour, James Butler, & Owen
> Jones.  My absolute joy though is to tune into the Artist Taxi Driver
> youtube channel (Chunky Mark) and listen to his latest rant.
>
> The accent is strongly London and that might cause difficulties but stay
> with him and just go with the passion. The link is athttps://
> www.youtube.com/user/chunkymark.
>
> The big question now is can Corbyn do it?  Can he win?  Personally I doubt
> it but i am very aware that just a few weeks ago the question was "Can
> Corbyn prevent a Tory landslide that would wipe out Labour?"
>
> The Tories have campaigned badly, like really badly.  They also have a deep
> structural problem, that has been partly obscured by the Brexit from the
> EU. The Tory project is in trouble. "Neoliberalism is dying in the night.
> ring out wild bells and let it die" I say and millions are beginning to say
> the same thing.
>
> Also in trouble are the Labour Moderates - those 200 odd ass wipes who
> opposed Corbyn with maximum treachery.  They allowed Corbyn to have a left
> wing manifesto in order, I think, to exorcise finally the "poison" of
> leftism. *BUT* the manifesto proved popular.  And now there seems no way
> back to Blairism and New Labour.
>
> Delightful times
>
> comradely
>
> Gary
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