[Marxism] ruling class view of Trump's ending Iran agreement
dmozart1756 at gmail.com
Wed May 9 09:33:17 MDT 2018
If Trump allows the reimposition of certain U.S. sanctions on Iran, the
United States would be the first party to breach this major international
If so, Trump’s decision would be at best reckless and at worse devious.
Whether he understands it or not, his strategy could easily lead to another
U.S. war in the Middle East — but this time without any European allies,
which he will have irreparably alienated.
If Trump breaches the deal first, and fails to even follow the dispute
resolution process the United States agreed to in the deal, the
European-U.S. diplomatic unity that brought Iran to the table would end,
and a trans-Atlantic split would open over Iran. Once the United States is
in breach of the deal, Europeans cannot in good faith support U.S. moves to
renegotiate it, as this would set a bad precedent not just vis-à-vis Iran
but for all other security agreements and, indeed, the sanctity of any
international agreement to which those European states are party. The
result will be that European support for the United States over Iran will
end. That makes it very unlikely that Trump will ever negotiate a better
deal, which was the product of more than a decade of coordinated sanctions
By reimposing sanctions, Trump risks alienating Europe and freeing Iran to
revive its nuclear program.
Trump’s decision could cause a serious rupture with European allies already
smarting from the administration’s threatened steel tariffs and withdrawal
from the Paris climate agreement. Britain, France, Germany, and the
European Union have made clear they would view a reimposition of
oil-related sanctions as a violation of the nuclear agreement. They have
signaled they will not pull out of the deal. Officials also have said they
will seek to protect European companies from any U.S. sanctions, using
so-called blocking legislation drawn up in the 1990s.
But it’s unclear if the deal can be preserved in the longer term without
American support. U.S. sanctions could force European companies to choose
between retaining access to the American market or the Iranian one. Most
will turn away from Iran instead of risking painful U.S. penalties, meaning
that Tehran will see diminishing economic returns, the main reason it
signed the accord in the first place.
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